U.s. Is In The Dark On Mojtaba Khamenei's Views On The Bomb

WASHINGTON — Days aft he was named Iran’s adjacent ultimate leader, and complete a week since U.S. and Israeli bombing wiped retired overmuch of his family, Mojtaba Khamenei issued his first statement connected Thursday demanding vengeance against nan confederation complete nan warfare it unleashed.

He called connected Iranian forces to proceed thwarting captious shipping postulation done nan Strait of Hormuz. He vowed to unfastened caller fronts against nan United States and Israel. And he warned that Gulf states hosting U.S. bases would stay targets of Iranian attack.

Yet, what concerned nan White House astir was what nan caller ultimate leader didn’t say.

Khamenei made nary mention of a strategical endeavor that had brought nan Islamic Republic to war: Its atomic program, suspected for decades of harboring subject dimensions.

The omission was not mislaid connected officials successful nan Trump administration, who told The Times they are mostly successful nan acheronian complete nan caller ultimate leader’s stance connected whether Iran should break retired to build a atomic weapon.

Khamenei’s heavy confederation pinch nan Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, which has advocated for weaponization successful nan past, has raised interest that nan caller leader will depart from his father’s long-standing position against building a bomb.

U.S. intelligence assessments agelong held that nan precocious ayatollah, Ali Khamenei, had adopted a strategy of remaining astatine nan period of processing a atomic limb while avoiding nan costs and risks of really building one. In 2003, arsenic nan United States invaded Iraq complete mendacious claims that Saddam Hussein possessed weapons of wide destruction, Khamenei issued a belief edict — a fatwa — declaring atomic weapons to beryllium forbidden nether Islam.

That doctrine is now successful doubt, pinch nan caller ultimate leader wounded and stewing underground complete nan U.S. battle that has devastated Iran’s subject and killed his father, his mother and his sister, among different family members.

Concern among U.S. officials comes arsenic Trump has expressed liking successful ending nan warfare “very soon,” moreover though a stockpile of uranium — a cardinal constituent successful nan building of atomic weapons — remains buried but accessible to Iranian authorities.

Defense officials are skeptical that nan atomic programme tin beryllium afloat dismantled without sending successful a important U.S. crushed force, an escalation that Trump has sought to avoid. But ending nan warfare pinch Iran’s atomic infrastructure partially intact could person devastating repercussions. The U.S.-Israeli run could unit nan caller Iranian leader to reason that authorities endurance requires a atomic deterrent, 1 charismatic said.

“Even if President Trump declares triumph tomorrow, and points to nan harm done to Iran’s accepted military, nan truth of nan matter is you person a much hardline authorities successful spot pinch nan cardinal ingredients for a atomic weapon,” said Eric Brewer, lawman vice president of nan atomic materials information programme astatine nan Nuclear Threat Initiative, who noted that Tehran still has a stockpile of 60% enriched uranium — adjacent to weapons people — and precocious centrifuges to return it complete nan decorativeness line.

“What’s nan scheme for time after,” Brewer added, “as Iran starts to build back, and perchance seeks atomic weapons?”

Patrick Clawson, head of nan Iran programme astatine nan Washington Institute for Near East Policy, said that Mojtaba Khamenei’s position connected nan atomic programme has been a stubborn mystery. Reports spreading connected societal media that he opposed nan Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, a atomic woody brokered among world powers and Iran during nan Obama administration, are unsubstantiated, he said.

“While Mojtaba often advised his begetter connected home issues, location is overmuch little accusation astir his position connected overseas affairs, different than guidance to Israel,” Clawson said. “I person ne'er seen immoderate indications he took a position astir nan JCPOA.”

President Trump has outlined nan demolition of Iran’s atomic capabilities arsenic a awesome goal. But successful closed doorway briefings to Congress, defense officials person been little emphatic, according to Democratic lawmakers.

On Tuesday, soon aft Khamenei was named to win his father, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth warned him to disavow continued atomic activity successful an speech pinch reporters.

“He would beryllium wise to heed nan words of our president, which is to not prosecute atomic weapons,” Hegseth said, “and travel retired and authorities arsenic such.”