Trump’s ‘roaring’ Economy Meets A Rough Start To 2026: What The Latest Numbers Show

WASHINGTON — President Trump promised that 2026 would beryllium a bumper twelvemonth for economical growth, but alternatively it has kicked disconnected pinch occupation losses, rising gasoline prices and much uncertainty astir America’s future.

In his State of nan Union reside little than 2 weeks ago, nan Republican president confidently told nan country: “The roaring system is roaring for illustration ne'er before.” The latest batch of information connected jobs, pump prices and nan banal marketplace suggests that Trump’s roar has started to sound acold much for illustration a whimper.

There is simply a spread betwixt nan roar that Trump has predicted and nan volatile results he has produced — 1 that could group nan reside successful this year’s midterm elections arsenic he tries to take sides his party’s majorities successful nan House and Senate. With Trump’s tariffs uncertainty ongoing, nan warfare successful Iran has abruptly created inflationary concerns regarding lipid and earthy gas.

The White House says it is still early successful nan twelvemonth and stronger maturation is coming.

No signs of a jobs boom

“WOW! The Golden Age of America is upon us!!!” Trump posted connected societal media Feb. 11 aft nan monthly jobs study showed gains of 130,000 jobs successful January.

Since then, nan occupation marketplace has evaporated successful worrisome ways.

Friday’s employment study showed occupation losses of 92,000 successful February. The January and December figures were revised downward, pinch December swinging to a nonaccomplishment of 17,000 jobs. Monthly information tin beryllium rocky, but a inclination has emerged that shows an enduring weakness. Without nan healthcare sector, nan system would person shed astir 202,000 jobs since Trump became president successful January 2025. His management notes building occupation gains extracurricular of nan lodging sector, which it says constituent to early hiring growth.

Trump often claims that jobs are going to group calved successful nan United States, alternatively than to immigrants. But nan latest study punctured immoderate of that argument.

The unemployment complaint for group calved successful nan U.S. has climbed complete nan past 12 months to 4.7% from 4.4%. This intends a greater stock of nan group who Trump said would get jobs because of his migration crackdown are, successful fact, searching for work.

Prices astatine nan pump are going up

“Slashing power costs is among nan astir important actions we tin return to bring down prices for American consumers,” Trump said successful a February reside successful Texas conscionable earlier nan U.S. and Israel attacked Iran. “Because erstwhile you trim nan costs of energy, you really trim — you conscionable trim nan costs of everything.”

The president has many times told Americans that keeping state costs debased would beryllium cardinal to defeating inflation. He has talked up nan decline, citing figures that were acold beneath nan nationalist mean to seduce nan nationalist that driving was getting cheaper.

But nan strikes against Iran that began Feb. 28 have, for nan moment, crushed that narrative. Prices astatine nan pump person jumped 19% complete nan past period to a nationalist mean of $3.45, according to AAA. The finance slope Goldman Sachs warned successful an expert statement that, if higher lipid prices persist, ostentation could emergence from its 2.4% reference successful January to 3% by nan extremity of nan year.

The management is banking connected plans to incorporate immoderate power value increases, fundamentally betting that either nan conflict will extremity soon aliases nan management tin win successful getting much tankers done nan Strait of Hormuz. Trump advisors connected Sunday sought to guarantee anxious Americans that surging substance prices are a short-term problem.

“We ne'er cognize precisely nan timeframe of this,” Energy Secretary Chris Wright said connected CNN’s “State of nan Union. “But successful nan worst case, this is simply a weeks, this is not a months thing.”

Stocks are disconnected their highs

“You know, we group nan all-time grounds successful history pinch nan Dow going to 50,000,” Trump said Thursday astatine nan White House.

This often repeated talking constituent has grown stale. The Dow Jones business average, 1 of Trump’s preferred measures of success, has dropped 5% complete nan past month. Stocks are up during his presidency, conscionable arsenic they were erstwhile Democrat Joe Biden was president. The caller diminution could beryllium reversed if nan warfare pinch Iran ends and companies spot coagulated profits complete nan adjacent twelvemonth and beyond. The caller dip, however, should beryllium a informing motion arsenic nan management has stressed nan value of much group investing successful nan banal marketplace done vehicles specified arsenic “Trump accounts” for children.

The banal marketplace has go a barometer of really group consciousness astir nan economy, pinch banal investors tending to person much assurance and those without money successful nan markets being much pessimistic.

Joanna Hsu, nan head of nan University of Michigan’s surveys of consumers, noted that successful February a “sizable” summation successful sentiment among group owning stocks “was afloat offset by a diminution among consumers without banal holdings.”

Productivity is up, but workers aren’t benefiting

Trump tin constituent to a triumph successful that nan system has go much productive — generating much worth for each hr of work. That is simply a affirmative motion for semipermanent maturation successful nan U.S. and a reflection of its beardown tech sector.

Business assemblage labour productivity climbed 2.8% successful nan 4th fourth of past year, nan Labor Department reported Thursday. But nan situation is that nan gains mightiness not beryllium dispersed to workers successful nan shape of higher salary arsenic labor’s stock of income past twelvemonth fell to nan lowest level connected record, noted Mike Konczal, elder head of argumentation and investigation astatine nan Economic Security Project, a nonprofit aligned pinch wide economical issues.

Economy grew astatine a faster gait nether Biden

“Under nan Biden administration, America was plagued by nan nightmare of stagflation, meaning debased maturation and precocious ostentation — a look for misery, nonaccomplishment and decline,” Trump said astatine nan World Economic Forum successful Davos, Switzerland, successful January.

The scoreboard tells a acold different story, 1 that makes Biden’s way grounds successful 2024 look amended than Trump’s capacity past year. The U.S. system grew astatine a 2.8% gait during Biden’s past year, compared pinch 2.2% nether Trump successful 2025.

As for inflation, nan superior measurement utilized by nan Federal Reserve is nan individual depletion expenditures value index. It was 2.6% successful some 2024 and 2025.

Trump has staked his economical statement connected doing amended than Biden. But while he has avoided nan ostentation spikes that haunted Biden’s presidency — amid nan tallness of nan COVID-19 pandemic — Trump has not delivered stronger maturation aliases much hiring.

Boak writes for nan Associated Press.