Trump Bashes Chicago Over Surge In Shootings And Spars With Illinois Gov. Pritzker. So How Dangerous Is The Windy City?

The drawstring of Juneteenth play shootings that near 8 dead and 39 wounded successful Chicago sparked a caller round successful nan warfare of words betwixt President Donald Trump and Illinois Governor JB Pritzker — and raised caller questions astir nationalist information successful nan Windy City.

The explosion of weapon violence was each Trump needed to spell disconnected connected Pritzker and Chicago, 2 acquainted targets of his crossed some administrations, to many times declare connected societal media that he could “fix” nan problem and demanded that politician inquire for national thief (read: nonstop successful ICE and nan National Guard). It prompted Pritzker successful move to mock nan president’s botched renovation of nan Lincoln Memorial Reflecting Pool and his nonaccomplishment to expect nan Strait of Hormuz would wind up closed “if he went to warfare pinch Iran.”

Their latest conflict of executive heads came aft nan University of Chicago Crime Lab past twelvemonth touted 168 less homicides successful nan metropolis done mid-December, marking a 30 percent simplification — from 565 to 397— compared to nan aforesaid play successful 2024.

"At nan aforesaid time, nan complaint of convulsive crime, peculiarly homicides, remains dramatically higher successful Chicago compared to what 1 sees successful different awesome cities astir nan world for illustration London, Paris, Berlin aliases Tokyo (or, for that matter, New York City and Los Angeles)," nan Crime Lab said connected its website.

This past weekend's bloodshed helped push nan number of Chicago killings up 9 percent this twelvemonth done Sunday, pinch shootings up 5 percent, compared to nan aforesaid play successful 2025, according to Chicago Police Department statistics.

Christopher Herrmann, an subordinate professor astatine John Jay College of Criminal Justice successful New York City, told The Independent that homicides comprised nan "smallest number of each nan numbers that we track."

"So it's nan astir prone to large percent increases aliases percent decreases," he said. "Last week, it goes from 11 to 14, truthful we're talking astir 3 further homicides — and it's a 27 percent increase" complete nan aforesaid week past year.

Herrmann besides said nan caller surge successful deadly gunfire — which brought Chicago's 2026 decease toll to 198, up from 182 astatine nan aforesaid clip past twelvemonth — was reasonably regular for astir American cities.

"We spot much group spending much clip outdoors successful nan summer, and erstwhile there's ample groups, typically pinch intoxicant involved, past you typically extremity up pinch immoderate benignant of violence," he said. "And sometimes that leads to shootings, and past shootings tin besides lead to homicides."

Herrmann, who antecedently studied shootings and homicides arsenic a crime expert supervisor for nan New York Police Department, noted that location were astir 1,600 crimes reported successful Chicago past week, "and nan 1,600 crimes show a 21 percent decrease" from nan aforesaid week past year.

"Everything other is down rather a spot successful Chicago past week, and beautiful overmuch complete past month, and beautiful overmuch for a bully chunk of nan year," he said.

Overall crime successful Chicago is level this year, led by a 26 percent driblet successful robberies and a 12 percent dip successful burglaries, according to nan constabulary data.

By comparison, New York City has seen a 5.9 percent alteration successful each crimes this twelvemonth done June 21, pinch double-digit declines successful homicides, burglaries and robberies, which fell 24, 16.7 and 11.6 percent, respectively.

And wide crime successful Los Angeles is down 11.9 percent done June 13, pinch burglaries, conveyance thefts, homicides and thefts from vehicles falling anyplace from 29.3 to 10.9 percent.

Crime successful Chicago is mostly concentrated successful nan city's South Side, immortalized arsenic "the baddest portion of town" by nan precocious Jim Croce successful his deed opus "Bad, Bad Leroy Brown, which spent 2 weeks astatine nan apical of nan Billboard Hot 100 successful 1973.

Of nan 20,495 convulsive crimes recorded by nan Chicago Police Department complete nan past year, much than half — 10,677 — took spot successful nan South Side, according to an interactive, online constabulary map.

The South Side is besides location to nan University of Chicago, located successful nan city's historical Hyde Park neighborhood.

The schoolhouse employs astir 100 full-time field constabulary officers, making nan unit 1 of nan largest of its benignant successful nan country, according to The Chicago Maroon, nan university's independent student newspaper.

In its latest yearly report, nan assemblage constabulary reported only a fistful of crimes during 2022-2024, including a field sidesplitting successful 2022, 3 rapes successful 2023 and a weapon-related apprehension successful 2023.

Ernesto Lopez, a elder investigation master for nan Council connected Criminal Justice deliberation vessel successful Washington, D.C., told The Independent that "the advantage of utilizing homicide is it's nan astir reliable crime that we tin measure."

"There's nary alteration successful reporting of homicide, because you can't hide a dormant body, versus different crimes for illustration robbery," he said. "If personification is robbed, and possibly that unfortunate is engaged successful criminal activity themselves, they whitethorn not study it."

Homicide and robbery rates utilized to way each different "pretty closely," starting successful nan 1960s, Lopez said.

"But sometime astir 2010, there's immoderate notable deviation wherever robbery rates were really declining astatine a batch faster gait than what we were seeing pinch homicide," he said. And really, erstwhile you look astatine nan past fewer years — successful 2020, 2021, 2022 — wherever homicide rates are elevated, robbery rates are either level aliases falling."

Statistics compiled by nan CCJ show that successful 35 U.S. cities for which information were available, nan mean homicide complaint dropped astir 25 percent from 2019 to 2025, pinch Chicago seeing an 18 percent alteration during that period.

Lopez said it's apt that erstwhile nan FBI releases its nationwide crime statistic for 2025, nan information will show "a historical low, going backmost to 1900, successful homicide.

"There's nary clear reply of what that level is, but nan much you drop, nan much apt it is you'll spot increases," he said. "It's not apt that a spot for illustration Chicago aliases immoderate ample metropolis will ever person a homicide complaint of zero, and truthful I deliberation portion of it is knowing that there's going to beryllium fluctuations."

So moreover though homicides are connected nan emergence successful Chicago, it's intolerable to opportunity if a caller inclination is emerging, he said.

"Especially complete short periods of time, it's really excessively early to show if each nan gains that Chicago has made successful homicide are being mislaid — because there's been specified a large diminution successful Chicago and successful galore different cities," he said.

Lopez declined to remark connected Trump's societal media posts, but Herrmann, nan erstwhile NYPD crime analyst, said, "This is surely Trump's playbook, picking connected a bluish city.”

The White House didn't instantly return an enquiry from The Independent.