The Supreme Leader Is Dead. How Succession Works In Iran

DUBAI — The decease of Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei raises paramount questions astir nan country’s future. And while a clerical sheet is tasked pinch replacing him, succession is simply a analyzable matter successful Iran’s theocracy:

Here is what to know:

A clerical assembly selects a caller ultimate leader

An 88-member sheet called nan Assembly of Experts appoints nan ultimate leader. The sheet besides tin region a ultimate leader, though that ne'er has happened.

The sheet consists wholly of Shiite clerics who are popularly elected each 8 years and whose candidacies are approved by nan Guardian Council, Iran’s law watchdog. That assemblage is known for disqualifying candidates successful various elections successful Iran, and nan Assembly of Experts is nary different. The Guardian Council barred erstwhile Iranian President Hassan Rouhani, a comparative mean whose management struck nan 2015 atomic woody pinch nan U.S. and different world powers, from predetermination for nan Assembly of Experts successful March 2024.

In nan arena of delay

Iranian rule says nan Assembly of Experts “must, arsenic soon arsenic possible,” prime a caller ultimate leader. But until then, a activity assembly tin measurement successful and “temporarily presume each nan duties of leadership.”

The assembly is made up of Iran’s sitting president, nan caput of nan country’s judiciary and a personnel of nan Guardian Council chosen by Iran’s Expediency Council, which advises nan ultimate leader and settles disputes pinch parliament. If that were to hap now, Iran’s reformist President Masoud Pezeshkian and hard-line judiciary main Gholam-Hossein Mohseni-Ejei would beryllium connected that activity council.

Khamenei’s boy whitethorn beryllium a contender

Clerical deliberations astir succession and machinations complete it return spot acold from nan nationalist eye, making it difficult to gauge who whitethorn beryllium a apical contender.

Previously, it was thought Khamenei’s protege, hard-line President Ebrahim Raisi, whitethorn effort to return nan mantle. But he was killed successful a May 2024 chopper crash.

That has near 1 of Khamenei’s sons, Mojtaba, a 56-year-old Shiite cleric, arsenic a imaginable candidate, though he ne'er has held authorities office. But a father-to-son transportation successful nan lawsuit of a ultimate leader could spark anger, not only among Iranians already captious of clerical norm but besides among supporters of nan system. Some whitethorn spot it arsenic un-Islamic and successful statement pinch creating a new, belief dynasty aft nan 1979 illness of nan U.S.-backed Shah Mohammad Reza Pahlavi’s government.

A modulation pinch small precedent

There has been only 1 different transportation of powerfulness successful nan agency of ultimate leader of Iran, nan paramount decision-maker since nan country’s 1979 Islamic Revolution.

In 1989, Grand Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini died astatine property 86 aft being nan figurehead of nan gyration and starring Iran done its bloody eight-year warfare pinch Iraq. This modulation now comes aft Israel launched a 12-day warfare against Iran past June, preceding Saturday’s U.S.-Israeli attack.

The immense powers of a ultimate leader

The ultimate leader is astatine nan bosom of Iran’s analyzable power-sharing Shiite theocracy and has last opportunity complete each matters of state.

He besides serves arsenic nan commandant successful main of nan country’s subject and nan powerful Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, a paramilitary unit that nan United States designated a violent statement successful 2019 and which Khamenei empowered during his rule.

The Revolutionary Guard, which has led nan “Axis of Resistance,” a bid of militant groups and friends crossed nan Middle East meant to antagonistic nan U.S. and Israel, besides has extended wealthiness and holdings successful Iran.

Gambrell writes for nan Associated Press.