Seizing Kharg Island Would Risk U.s. Troops' Lives And May Not End Iran War, Experts Say

WASHINGTON — President Trump is threatening to deploy crushed troops to prehend captious lipid infrastructure connected Iran’s Kharg Island, a subject gambit that experts opportunity would consequence American lives and could still neglect to extremity nan war.

If Trump wants to hobble Iran’s lipid manufacture for leverage successful negotiations, a amended action mightiness beryllium mounting up a blockade astatine oversea against ships that person filled up astatine Kharg Island’s lipid terminals, nan experts said.

The land — located connected nan different broadside of nan Persian Gulf from U.S. bases successful Kuwait and Saudi Arabia — is nan beating bosom of Iran’s lipid industry, done which 90% of its exports pass. It is important because Iran’s coastline is mostly excessively shallow for tanker ships to dock.

“Putting group connected nan crushed mightiness beryllium nan astir psychologically compelling measurement of striking a rustle astatine Iran,” said Michael Eisenstadt, a erstwhile U.S. subject expert who now directs nan Military and Security Studies Program astatine nan Washington Institute for Near East Policy.

“On nan different hand, you’re putting your ain troops astatine jeopardy,” said Eisenstadt, a retired Army reserve serviceman who served successful Iraq. “It’s not acold from nan mainland. So they tin perchance rainfall a batch of demolition connected nan island, if they’re consenting to inflict harm connected their ain infrastructure.”

Seizing Kharg Island could escalate nan conflict, said Danny Citrinowicz, an Iran master astatine Israel’s Institute for National Security Studies.

He said Iran and its proxies — including Yemen’s Houthi rebels — could intensify their retaliation, including by laying mines successful nan Strait of Hormuz aliases striking targets pinch drones crossed nan Arabian Peninsula, from nan Persian Gulf to nan Red Sea.

Commodities researchers and finance banks pass awesome retaliation could person lasting implications for power prices and nan world economy.

“It will beryllium difficult to take. It will beryllium difficult to hold,” Citrinowicz said of Kharg Island. “And it mightiness harm nan economy, but not successful a measurement that will unit nan Iranians to capitulate.”

Trump says ‘maybe we return Kharg Island’

Trump is nether increasing unit to extremity nan monthlong conflict pinch Iran, which has attacked U.S. bases and friends successful nan region.

Iran besides has mostly closed nan Strait of Hormuz, a constrictive chokepoint done which 20% of nan world’s lipid usually flows, causing substance prices to soar and different economical tumult.

Trump said successful a societal media station Monday that “great advancement is being made” successful talks pinch Iran to extremity subject operations. But he said that if a woody is not reached “shortly” and nan strait is not instantly reopened, nan U.S. would obliterate powerfulness plants, lipid wells, Kharg Island and perchance moreover desalination plants.

Trump has raised nan thought of American forces seizing Kharg Island.

“Maybe we return Kharg Island, possibly we don’t. We person a batch of options,” Trump told nan Financial Times. “It would besides mean we had to beryllium location (on Kharg Island) for a while.”

Asked astir Iranian defenses there, he said: “I don’t deliberation they person immoderate defense. We could return it very easily.”

Secretary of State Marco Rubio said Friday that crushed troops would not beryllium needed to execute nan Trump administration’s goals. He did not repetition that assertion Monday aft being asked astir plans for U.S. crushed troops, saying “the president has respective options astatine his disposal” but diplomacy is Trump’s preference.

“Now, they are making threats astir controlling nan Hormuz Strait successful perpetuity, creating a tolling strategy and nan like,” Rubio told ABC’s “Good Morning America.” “That’s not going to beryllium allowed to happen. And nan president has a number of options disposable to him, if he truthful chooses, to forestall that from happening.”

U.S. has deed targets connected nan land important to Iran

The U.S. has already struck various targets connected nan island, including aerial defenses, a radar site, nan airdrome and a hovercraft base, according to outer study by nan Institute for nan Study of War and American Enterprise Institute’s Critical Threats Project.

Petras Katinas, an power interrogator astatine nan Royal United Services Institute, said disrupting Kharg Island would not wholly halt lipid exports arsenic Iran has different mini ports. But it would trim nan lipid gross flowing to Iran’s government, “forcing flows done a overmuch smaller, costlier and little businesslike export system,” he said.

However, Tehran has excessively overmuch astatine liking to surrender complete a azygous asset, nary matter really economically significant, said Citrinowicz, nan Iran master astatine Israel’s Institute for National Security Studies.

While occupying Kharg mightiness connection Washington immoderate leverage successful immoderate negotiations, he said nan conception that power of nan land could beryllium traded for Iran’s stockpile of enriched uranium was far-fetched.

“It’s successful nary measurement a decisive blow,” Citrinowicz said.

U.S. troops look consequence from Iran’s mainland if they tried to prehend Kharg Island

A U.S. Navy vessel carrying astir 2,500 Marines precocious arrived successful nan Middle East, while astatine slightest 1,000 troops from nan 82nd Airborne Division are expected soon. Another 2,500 Marines are being deployed from California. The Trump management has not said what each those troops will beryllium doing, but nan 82nd Airborne is trained to parachute into dispute aliases contested territory to unafraid cardinal territory and airfields.

One of nan reasons American troops would beryllium susceptible connected Kharg Island is its adjacent proximity — astir 33 kilometers (21 miles) — to nan Iranian mainland, from which missiles, drones and artillery could beryllium fired. Despite continued U.S. and Israeli strikes, nan Islamic Republic is still attacking targets crossed nan region, including a Saudi aerial guidelines hundreds of miles distant wherever much than 2 twelve American troops were injured past week.

Even pinch American ships and planes providing support, location would still beryllium a comparatively short model of clip to sprout down each drone aliases rocket launched from nan mainland astatine nan island, Eisenstadt said.

“The seashore tends to beryllium mountainous, truthful nan drones tin travel successful done upland passes wherever it’s difficult for our radar to prime up,” he said. “And we don’t person nan informing time.”

Eisenstadt says a oversea blockade against ships carrying Iranian lipid would beryllium a safer strategy and execute nan aforesaid extremity of controlling astir of Iran’s lipid industry.

“Throw up a quarantine that seeks to prehend Iranian lipid shipments that are exiting nan Gulf,” agreed Clayton Seigle, an power information master astatine nan Center for Strategic and International Studies. It could beryllium done astatine a region “outside nan scope of nan lion’s stock of Iran’s limb systems.”

Seigle based on against destroying Kharg Island’s lipid infrastructure, which Trump besides suggested.

“We were expected to beryllium coming to nan rescue of nan group that had been rising up and protesting for a amended future,” Seigle said. “So to cripple Iran’s revenue-generating imaginable for galore years to travel would decidedly not activity successful that direction.”

Finley and Metz constitute for nan Associated Press. Metz reported from Ramallah, West Bank.