Kamala Harris Is Polling Well, Which Signifies Nothing

When I publication each nan hype being heaped connected Kamala Harris’ lead successful early polls for nan 2028 Democratic nomination, I person to chuckle to myself.

The merchandise of a Rasmussen Reports canvass successful February was titled, “Kamala Harris Still Leads 2028 Field for Democrats.” One header successful nan Hill predicted, “Kamala Harris whitethorn yet beryllium nan Democratic nominee successful 2028.” A Washington Examiner portion astir polling warned, “Democrats won’t get free of Kamala Harris that easy for 2028.”

I chuckle not because I don’t judge nan numbers, but because I don’t judge immoderate canvass this acold retired successful an unfastened title is meaningful, fto unsocial determinative. I’ve seen this movie before, and it didn’t extremity well.

In 2003, aft managing nan successful 2002 reelection run of California Gov. Gray Davis, I signed connected arsenic an advisor to nan statesmanlike run of Connecticut Sen. Joseph Lieberman — who, I needn’t punctual anyone, had been nan Democratic nominee for vice president successful nan 2000 election, which he and Al Gore mislaid successful a nail-biter to George W. Bush.

Based simply connected his precocious sanction recognition from that hellzapoppin’ race, and nan truth his sanction had been connected nan ballot successful each 50 states conscionable 2 years before, Lieberman initially led nan Democratic section rather handily successful almost each nationalist poll.

An ABC News/Washington Post study successful January 2003 recovered Lieberman starring nan Democratic section pinch 27%. A Gallup canvass from that aforesaid period besides placed him first, up of some John Kerry and Richard Gephardt.

A Pew canvass successful nan summertime of 2003 besides recovered Lieberman atop nan field, arsenic nan best-known campaigner astatine 85% sanction recognition, and 58% support, up of Kerry, Gephardt and Howard Dean.

Boy, did we brag astir Lieberman’s lead astatine each extremity and successful each property release. But successful nan end, nan promising early numbers meant nothing. When existent votes were cast, Lieberman wholly flamed out, receiving a measly 8.9% of nan ballot successful nan captious first superior successful New Hampshire, finishing dormant last, and dropping retired of nan title successful February 2004, having mislaid each superior and caucus up to that point.

Why? A batch of reasons, including mistakes made by nan campaigner and campaign. But fundamentally because, erstwhile Democrats started to return a adjacent look astatine and measure nan afloat field, they relegated Lieberman to nan position of a loser, and they wanted to move on. We heard a batch of, “He had his chance and lost.” Does Harris travel to mind?

The truth is, we Democrats thin to put defeated statesmanlike nominees successful nan rear-view reflector beautiful quickly. Think of Michael Dukakis, Gore and Kerry. And let’s not forget, Harris obtaining nan information successful 2024 was a fluke; she didn’t compete successful 1 superior aliases person 1 superior vote. The first clip she ran for president, successful nan 2020 cycle, she besides didn’t triumph 1 superior aliases person a azygous superior vote, because she ran a bad run and hightailed it retired of nan title earlier a azygous ballot was cast. Two strikes and you’re out?

We Democrats conscionable don’t renominate losers. The past clip we did it was precisely 70 — yes, 70 — years ago, pinch Adlai Stevenson successful 1956 aft he had mislaid nan 1952 statesmanlike title to Dwight Eisenhower. Stevenson rewarded Democrats for this recycling effort by losing to Eisenhower a 2nd clip — by an moreover worse margin. Democrats learned their lesson: Reheating doesn’t activity pinch grounded candidates.

And, travel on, Harris not only mislaid to Trump, not only mislaid each 7 plaything states, but was nan first Democratic statesmanlike nominee successful 20 years to suffer nan celebrated vote. And her anemic showing besides helped Republicans wrest power of nan Senate from Democrats. We’re expected to ideate that’s a reliable grounds connected which to tally again for nan nomination?

All of these breathless stories astir Harris starring nan section nationally besides ne'er mention her perilous opinionated successful her ain location authorities of California. A Berkeley IGS study successful August revealed that by a separator of 18 percent points, moreover her chap Democrats successful California did not want her to tally again. A Politico canvass this period showed Gov. Gavin Newsom pinch a 2-to-1 lead successful California among voters leaning toward voting successful nan 2028 Democratic primary.

So person fun, Kamala Harris, enjoying your name-ID precocious while it lasts (although possibly a mite longer than your 107-day statesmanlike effort).

Garry South is simply a Democratic strategist who has managed 4 campaigns for politician of California and played important roles successful 3 statesmanlike campaigns, including that of Al Gore.