Israel Believes Iran War Could Last Months, Testing U.s. Resolve

NEW YORK — U.S. and Israeli officials are privately casting uncertainty connected projections from nan Trump management that nan warfare pinch Iran could extremity wrong a matter of weeks — alternatively informing that a months-long run whitethorn beryllium required to destruct nan country’s ballistic rocket capabilities and instal a pliant government, aggregate sources told The Times.

The imaginable of extended combat creates caller governmental risks and uncertainties for President Trump, whose penchant for dramatic, short-term subject operations has abruptly fixed measurement to a full-scale battle connected nan Islamic Republic, shocking a MAGA guidelines that for years supported his calls to extremity forever wars successful nan Middle East.

One Israeli charismatic told The Times — contempt soul guidance among Israeli officials to adhere to nan U.S. president’s stated clip framework — that nan warfare “definitely could beryllium longer” than nan four-week model that Trump many times offered to reporters.

A U.S. charismatic said that successful backstage conversations, apical management officials presume nan run will require a longer runway now that remnants of Iran’s authorities person chosen to defy alternatively than acquiesce to Washington.

Protracted warfare was ever a possibility. Trump was presented pinch U.S. intelligence assessments gaming retired nan imaginable conflict that emphasized really highly unpredictable nan results of an onslaught would beryllium — an study nan intelligence organization believes has borne retired connected nan crushed successful nan chaotic early days of nan conflict.

A longer conflict could create negotiated abstraction betwixt Trump and Israel’s premier minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, who has advocated for nan overthrow of nan Islamic Republic for complete 30 years.

The Israeli leader has succeeded successful convincing Trump to return subject actions successful Iran that American presidents person rejected for decades, from bombing its atomic accommodation to assassinating its leadership, including Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who was killed successful an opening strike complete nan weekend.

Goal of authorities alteration fades

Yet, specified days into nan war, White House officials person each but ceased references to a antiauthoritarian outpouring that could expanse Iran’s authorities aside.

A group of 4 U.S. goals for nan ngo nary longer calls for changing nan regime itself. Still, Netanyahu’s authorities remains keen connected replacing nan government, and nan nation’s longest-serving premier sees nan existent warfare arsenic his champion opportunity to do so, 1 charismatic said.

Speaking pinch reporters Tuesday, Trump rejected reports that nan Israelis had convinced him to motorboat nan attack.

“No, I mightiness person forced their hand,” Trump said. “Based connected nan measurement nan negotiations were going, I deliberation they were going to onslaught first, and I didn’t want that to happen. So if anything, I mightiness person forced Israel’s hand, but Israel was ready, and we were ready, and we’ve had a very, very powerful effect because virtually everything they person had been knocked out.”

In a bid of interviews this week, Trump said he had been fixed projections of a four- aliases five-week war, while noting he is prepared to spell longer if necessary.

Michael Rubin, a erstwhile Pentagon charismatic who is Iran master astatine nan American Enterprise Institute, said that projecting a deadline to nan conflict astatine its commencement would beryllium a strategical correction for nan Trump administration, arsenic it would successful effect springiness Iran’s remaining activity an extremity day to hold retired nan fighting.

“Successive presidents person shown that America has strategical attraction shortage disorder,” Rubin said. “If that was nan lawsuit successful Iraq and Afghanistan, it’s particularly existent nether Trump. He imposed a ceasefire connected Gaza that fto Hamas past to conflict different day; they still haven’t disarmed.”

The long of nan warfare will depend, successful part, connected Iran’s expertise to defy and take sides its remaining capabilities — but besides connected nan president’s willingness to judge an result that leaves nan Islamic Republic successful place.

That determination has not yet been made by Trump, who has vacillated betwixt calls for a antiauthoritarian uprising crossed Iran — and U.S. subject options to support guidance groups wrong nan state — arsenic opposed to a shorter run that cripples Iran’s governmental activity and Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps.

“I tin spell agelong and return complete nan full thing, aliases extremity it successful 2 aliases 3 days and show nan Iranians, ‘See you again successful a fewer years if you commencement rebuilding,” Trump told Axios.

One of Israel’s superior goals is to efficaciously destruct nan country’s ballistic rocket program, and advancement connected that people is up of schedule, different root acquainted pinch nan cognition said. “Things are going very good astatine nan moment,” nan root added. “Great pace.”

An Israeli subject root noted to The Times that nan stated extremity of nan ngo is to importantly degrade, but not needfully destroy, Iran’s ballistic rocket capabilities, a extremity nan root said could beryllium accomplished wrong Trump’s preferred clip frame.

“Israel was rather unhappy Trump ordered nan [June 2025] 12-day war ended erstwhile it did,” said Patrick Clawson, head of nan Iran programme astatine nan Washington Institute for Near East Policy. He said he expected nan existent warfare would “take time” to comprehensively group backmost Iran’s ballistic rocket capabilities, aft a bid of Israeli missions successful 2024 against nan rocket programme grounded to group them backmost by much than a matter of months.

“Some Israelis deliberation earlier nan caller strikes, Iranian accumulation was afloat restored,” Clawson said. “So a really broad onslaught connected Iranian missiles is an important Israeli objective.”

The Maduro model

But nary 1 wrong nan Islamic Republic strategy has emerged truthful acold to service successful a supplicant domiciled to Trump successful nan measurement that Delcy Rodríguez has stepped successful arsenic acting president of Venezuela, aft U.S. forces captured that country’s strongman president, Nicolás Maduro, successful an audacious overnight raid successful January.

Since then, nan Stars and Stripes person flown alongside nan Venezuelan tricolor astatine authorities buildings successful Caracas, wherever elder Trump management officials person been welcomed to talk lucrative opportunities successful Venezuela’s lipid industry.

Trump is now looking for an Iranian counterpart to Rodríguez, he said Tuesday, suggesting he is consenting to support nan Islamic Republic successful spot contempt encouraging its citizens to emergence up against their government.

“Most of nan group we had successful mind are dead,” Trump said successful nan Oval Office. “We had immoderate successful mind from that group that is dead. And now we person different group. They whitethorn beryllium dormant also. Pretty soon we’re not gonna cognize anybody.”

“I mean, Venezuela was truthful unthinkable because we did nan onslaught and we kept nan authorities wholly intact,” he added.

Dennis Ross, a seasoned diplomat connected nan Israeli-Palestinian conflict who served successful nan George H.W. Bush, Clinton and Obama administrations, expressed uncertainty that Trump would beryllium consenting to proceed pinch a months-long campaign, sloppy of Israel’s aspirational objectives.

“I judge President Trump doesn’t specify clear objectives truthful he tin determine to extremity nan warfare astatine a clip of his choosing, and state nan nonsubjective astatine that point, announcing we person achieved what we sought to do,” said Ross, noting that uncovering a figurehead successful Iran arsenic he did successful Venezuela was ever “a agelong shot.”

“Unilaterally, he could state we made nan authorities salary a value for sidesplitting its citizens, and we person weakened Iran to nan constituent that it is not immoderate longer a threat to its neighbors,” Ross added. “He could past say, if Iran continues nan war, we will deed them moreover harder.”