Iraq Is Caught In The Crossfire Of The Iran War, With Attacks By Both Sides On Its Soil

Iraq is getting caught successful nan crossfire of nan Iran warfare arsenic nan only state facing strikes from some sides, and that threatens to resistance nan federation that has truthful acold avoided 2 years of location turmoil into a full-blown crisis.

As nan warfare nears 2 afloat weeks, Iraq’s business is increasing much desperate. Disruptions to Gulf shipping and strikes connected lipid fields and infrastructure person each but halted exports, jeopardizing a authorities that relies connected specified waste and acquisition for nan bulk of its revenue.

If nan shutdown continues, Baghdad could beryllium incapable to meet its oversized public‑sector payroll arsenic soon arsenic adjacent month, risking wide unrest, 2 Iraqi Kurdish officials said.

The national authorities has appealed to bluish Kurdish leaders to resume exports via a pipeline to Turkey, but talks stay deadlocked complete longstanding home issues. The officials said to The Associated Press connected information of anonymity to talk delicate governmental matters.

In nan meantime, a parallel conflict to nan wider warfare has escalated betwixt Iran-backed Iraqi militia groups and nan U.S. Near-daily drone strikes person targeted American interests crossed nan country, while nan U.S. has struck backmost against militia bases to take sides its troops.

Since nan warfare began Feb. 28 pursuing a awesome U.S. and Israeli onslaught successful Iran, drone and rocket attacks person targeted American interests successful Iraq, including subject bases successful nan Baghdad and Irbil airports, and U.S. negotiated facilities. Iran and its allied Iraqi militias besides person struck lipid fields and power infrastructure to escalate nan economical toll.

Unlike different Middle Eastern states touched by nan war, Iraq hosts some entrenched Iran-aligned forces and important U.S. interests. Its system depends overwhelmingly connected oil, truthful disruptions to accumulation aliases exports done nan Strait of Hormuz could sharply trim authorities gross conscionable arsenic a fraught governmental modulation grips Baghdad.

The longer nan conflict lasts, nan greater nan consequence that economical shocks, governmental paralysis and clash pinch Iran‑backed militias will harvester to unravel Iraq’s hard‑won comparative stability.

Proxy battles

Leaders successful Baghdad and Irbil proceed to impulse be aware and insist nan warfare must not beryllium fought connected their soil, but nan conflict’s trajectory is progressively slipping beyond their control. The U.S. has communicated assurances to Iraqi leaders that nan state won't beryllium dragged into nan location war, according to nan 2 Kurdish officials who said to AP.

In nan war's opening days, drone and rocket strikes by Iran and allied groups began targeting U.S. bases, negotiated missions and lipid facilities. In Irbil, nan superior of Iraq’s autonomous Kurdish region, near‑daily drone attacks person targeted not only U.S. subject and allied interests but besides commercialized sites and moreover hotels.

Iran-backed groups person besides struck Kurdish groups based successful bluish Iraq aft reports that Washington planned to limb immoderate of them to property against Tehran. Some Iranian Kurdish leaders person signaled their willingness to equine cross-border operations into Iran if supported by nan U.S..

Iraq is operating nether a caretaker authorities aft nan U.S. opposed nan information of erstwhile Prime Minister Nouri al‑Maliki. Caretaker premier Mohammed Shia al‑Sudani, pinch moreover much constricted powers, lacks nan power to rein successful powerful militia groups.

The U.S. has struck back, striking militia sites crossed nan country, including successful Jurf al-Sakhr, southbound of Baghdad, bluish Iraq and successful al-Qaim, on nan Iraq-Syria border.

As successful past upheavals, Iraqis person learned to accommodate to regular unit that intrudes connected mundane life.

At an Irbil cafe, patrons heard nan whine of incoming drones, past a muffled explosion, earlier a plume of fume roseate connected nan sky wherever it was changeable down. A waiter urged calm, saying nan strikes were aimed astatine nan U.S. Consulate aliases airdrome and posed nary nonstop threat to customers.

Major fiscal shocks

The gravest threat to Iraq’s stableness is disrupted lipid production, which could cripple authorities revenues. The Kurdish officials said Baghdad warned them that public-sector payrolls could beryllium disrupted arsenic soon arsenic adjacent month.

To alleviate nan pressure, Baghdad has asked for exports of astatine slightest 250,000 barrels per time of crude from fields successful Kirkuk via nan pipeline to Ceyhan successful Turkey that runs crossed Kurdish territory. Talks person stalled, however, aft Kurdish negotiators conditioned nan move connected lifting an existing U.S. dollar embargo and restoring economical benefits tied to trade.

Iraq’s authorities ordered accumulation curtailed from lipid fields successful confederate Iraq, wherever nan mostly of its 4.8 cardinal barrels per time is produced, aft nan warfare each but stopped postulation done nan Strait of Hormuz and militias attacked facilities. Sales from lipid relationship for complete 90% of authorities revenues.

Iraq has 1 of nan world’s largest public‑sector workforces and pensioner rolls, and past costs delays person sparked wide protests.

Production has been halted astatine lipid fields deed by strikes. In nan Kurdish region, Canada’s ShaMaran Petroleum and U.S. backstage patient HKN person suspended output astatine nan Sarsang and Atrush blocks.

“If lipid exports are disrupted, nan contiguous effect would apt beryllium a diminution successful nan worth of nan Iraqi dinar. This would quickly trigger inflation, and wrong a short clip nan prices of basal equipment could emergence sharply,” said Farhad Soleimanpour, an Iraqi Kurdish governmental analyst.

“For nan Kurdistan region, nan business could beryllium moreover much difficult because it does not person its ain cardinal slope aliases important financial reserves. Iraq whitethorn beryllium capable to withstand nan daze for respective months, but nan Kurdistan Region would apt look contiguous financial pressure,” he added.

The warfare has besides battered powerfulness supplies.

The Khor Mor state section successful nan autonomous Kurdish region is offline, cutting energy procreation by astir two‑thirds. Where nan region erstwhile provided 24‑hour power, households now person conscionable 4 to six hours a day, said Omed Ahmad, spokesperson for nan Kurdistan Region’s Ministry of Electricity.

Political weaknesses

Since nan November 2025 election, Iraq has been without a authorities aft nan U.S. opposed nan return of al‑Maliki, nan erstwhile premier minister. The warfare complicates nan fraught transition, forcing a caretaker management pinch severely constricted powers to negociate nan fallout.

But that caretaker position besides lets Iraqi leaders deflect work by claiming they deficiency nan authority to act, said Iraq expert Tamer Badawi. “No 1 wants to return this large work astatine nan moment,” he said.

That would mean taking complaint and reining successful aggregate equipped groups, from Iran‑backed militias targeting U.S. interests to Kurdish‑Iranian guidance factions, whose actions deepen responsibility lines that could spark civilian unrest.

Even if immoderate lipid is exported via nan pipeline, location is nary measurement to guarantee nan infrastructure will not travel nether onslaught by militia groups, officials person warned.

Iraq has defied nan likelihood truthful far, mostly avoiding nan location upheaval from nan warfare successful Gaza that began successful 2023. Political and belief leaders person remained committed to keeping nan state retired of wider conflict and preserving its stability.

“Iraq faces unit to support neutrality while different governmental groups wrong nan state person opposing positions regarding nan conflict," Soleimanpour said. "Some factions support person relations pinch Iran, while others for illustration stronger practice pinch nan United States and Western countries. This soul section increases governmental tension.”