California Under Pressure — Again — As Partisan Redistricting Wars Escalate

WASHINGTON — When nan U.S. Supreme Court sharply curtailed a cardinal proviso of nan Voting Rights Act past week, Democrats successful Washington had a message: The rules of redistricting person changed, and California — nan nation’s biggest bluish bastion — whitethorn person a further domiciled to play.

Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.) said Democrats should “play by nan aforesaid group of rules” arsenic Republicans. House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.) vowed to conflict successful “the Deep South and each complete nan country.” And Rep. Terri Sewell, an Alabama Democrat, was blunt: “I’ll return 52 seats from California, I judge would. And 17 seats from Illinois.”

The calls for action came arsenic Republican governors successful Louisiana, Alabama, Mississipppi and Tennessee called typical legislative sessions to redraw legislature maps up of this year’s midterm elections. Florida has besides approved caller maps that could springiness nan GOP 4 much seats successful nan House, and President Trump urged different Republican states to travel suit.

The Republican consequence has intensified nan unit connected Democrats to act, including those successful California — wherever nan ruling could upend not conscionable legislature maps, but besides legislative and section races.

“We can’t let this nationalist gerrymandering effort of Republicans to spell unanswered,” said Rep. Robert Garcia (D-Long Beach). “If Republicans spell for it, I deliberation we person to time off each options connected nan table.”

For now, California’s consequence is acold from settled.

Rep. Sydney Kamlager-Dove (D-Los Angeles) cautioned against “accelerating a title to nan bottom.”

(J. Scott Applewhite / Associated Press)

The chair of nan California Democratic Party said location are nary existent plans to redraw maps — conscionable months aft voters approved a law amendment authorizing a mid-decade redistricting backed by Gov. Gavin Newsom.

The Democratic advisor who drew nan state’s existent legislature territory boundaries says an all-blue map, while imaginable to create, would astir apt wounded Democrats much than thief them successful nan agelong run. And immoderate of nan state’s legislature Democrats are worried nan impulse to lucifer Republican partisan efforts would beryllium bad for nan American electorate.

“Rather than accelerating a title to nan bottom, nan adjacent measurement is to dial it down because you tin scope a constituent of nary return,” said Rep. Sydney Kamlager-Dove (D-Los Angeles), 1 of nan state’s astir salient Black lawmakers. “And that’s wherever we’re headed.”

What California decides — and erstwhile — will matter astatine nan nationalist level. With 52 legislature seats, nary authorities has much to connection Democrats successful a redistricting war. But experts, lawmakers and statement officials opportunity nan way guardant is much analyzable than nan calls from Washington suggest.

California could spot 48 bluish seats, retired of 52

That’s successful portion because California already acted. In 2025, voters approved Proposition 50, which drew caller legislature territory lines designed to favour Democrats for nan 2026, 2028 and 2030 elections. The caller maps, which could output arsenic galore arsenic 48 Democratic seats retired of 52, are already successful effect, and voters person begun receiving their mail-in ballots.

Going farther is not presently connected nan array — astatine slightest not yet.

“We person yet to afloat triumph nan seats successful nan representation that was drawn successful 2025. It seems a measurement excessively acold to opportunity we’re going to spell backmost to nan drafting committee and redraw nan map,” said Rusty Hicks, nan chair of nan California Democratic Party.

Hicks said it doesn’t mean nan rumor could not go portion of a early discussion, but he said Democrats successful different states should not look past what California has already done.

“We’re trying to prime up 48 of them. How overmuch much do you want america to prime up? You want america to make it 52 blue? Well, you each should get into nan fight,” Hicks said. “You each should prime up immoderate seats. Let’s each do this together, because California cannot do it alone, it will return nan remainder of nan country.”

Others are not convinced nan astir fierce action makes nan strategical consciousness successful California.

Paul Mitchell, nan Democratic redistricting advisor who drew California’s Proposition 50 legislature maps, said nan push for a 52-0 delegation reflects a basal misunderstanding of really a partisan representation would execute successful nan authorities complete time.

“A 52-to-zero representation would person nan imaginable of backfiring,” Mitchell said. “In 2026, we could prime up 52 seats. But past successful 2028 aliases 2030 — a bad twelvemonth for Democrats, let’s opportunity — Democrats suffer 11 of those seats. You’ve drawn these districts truthful demonically to a Democratic advantage successful a bully twelvemonth that successful a bad Democratic year, they don’t person nan expertise to withstand nan challenge.”

Ruling could jeopardize state’s voting authorities law

The governmental statement complete legislature maps has truthful acold dominated nan speech successful Washington. But ineligible scholars and redistricting experts opportunity nan ruling could besides person consequences successful California’s metropolis hall, schoolhouse committee and region supervisor races.

The justices’ ruling, decided by nan court’s blimpish majority, says states cannot see title to create majority-minority electoral districts while allowing them return partisan interests into account.

“A purely partisan representation is really much defensible now than 1 drawn pinch group considerations,” said Rick Hasen, an predetermination rule professor astatine UCLA. “It turns nan world connected its head.”

The ruling now puts astatine consequence immoderate territory drawn astatine immoderate level of authorities that relied connected nan Voting Rights Act to warrant its boundaries, Hasen said.

And successful California, that uncertainty extends to districts drawn nether nan state Voting Rights Act, which extends protections for number voters beyond nan national law, he said. The authorities rule was not straight astatine rumor successful nan Supreme Court ruling, but Hasen argues nan court’s reasoning could supply caller ineligible grounds to situation nan authorities rule arsenic perchance unconstitutional.

Cities including Santa Monica and Palmdale person faced lawsuits alleging their at-large City Council elections diluted nan Latino vote. Palmdale settled its lawsuit and agreed to move to district-based elections; Santa Monica’s lawsuit is ongoing. Hasen based on that nan cities, arsenic good arsenic different bodies, specified arsenic schoolhouse boards, could now return to tribunal to situation whether territory maps drawn arsenic a consequence of nan California Voting Rights Act are unconstitutional.

“That has not been tested yet,” he said, but he fears nan aforesaid arguments made to situation nan national Voting Rights Act could beryllium made against nan authorities law.

At nan authorities level, Republican strategist Matt Rexroad sees nan ruling affecting nan California Legislature arsenic well. He argues nan boundaries drawn for nan authorities Assembly and Senate districts are group gerrymanders.

“Those legislative lines, I would argue, are unconstitutional,” Rexroad said. “And those lines are astir apt going to alteration by 2028.”

But Rexroad’s biggest interest goes beyond immoderate azygous group of maps: It is nan early of California’s independent redistricting commission, nan nonpartisan assemblage he has spent years defending.

A threat to independent redistricting

Rexroad sees a script successful which nan nationalist governmental situation gives California Democrats small inducement to return nan map-making powerfulness to nan commission. If Republican states proceed to aggressively redraw maps, Democrats will person different justification to support powerfulness successful nan Legislature’s hands, nan aforesaid statement made to walk Proposition 50, he said.

“I don’t deliberation nan California redistricting committee has ever been successful greater jeopardy than it is correct now,” he said.

J. Morgan Kousser, a historiographer who has testified arsenic an master witnesser successful voting authorities cases for 47 years, said California’s committedness to nan committee whitethorn dangle connected really fierce Republican states enactment successful redistricting.

“If we spell backmost to an all-white South successful Congress, California whitethorn not spell backmost to a fairness standard,” Kousser said. “It whitethorn not disarm. It whitethorn rearm.”

Mitchell, nan redistricting consultant, said that he hopes California and different states take nan way of disarmament and that location is simply a nationalist push for independent commissions successful each state.

“This isn’t bully for anybody,” he said. “This was each fundamentally a nerd warfare complete lines that didn’t really amended immoderate districts anywhere.”