Analysis: A Confident Iran Is Pressing Its Advantage, But Challenges Loom

As Iranian media boast of nan “magnificent defeat” of nan United States, Tehran is pressing its advantage, racing to waste lipid nether nan interim bid statement signed this week and trying to halt Israeli attacks successful Lebanon.

But nan Islamic Republic suffered its ain awesome blows and faces challenges ahead. Its system is successful shambles aft nan war, nan state was rocked by wide protests successful January, and its ultimate leader has yet to look successful public. It is entering atomic talks pinch nan U.S. aft coming nether onslaught during 2 erstwhile rounds.

The woody offers desperately needed sanctions relief, overmuch of which will travel only if Iran rolls backmost its atomic program, including astatine a minimum diluting its stockpile of highly enriched uranium. That concession has angered Iranian hard-liners. The U.S. is meantime demanding it cease enrichment entirely, thing Iran has staunchly refused for decades.

Iran’s leaders are projecting confidence, having clung to powerfulness contempt weeks of dense U.S. and Israeli strikes. They besides judge U.S. President Donald Trump is improbable to transportation retired threats to resume nan warfare because of Iran's demonstrated expertise to adjacent nan Strait of Hormuz and harm nan world economy.

“It’s excessively overmuch to opportunity that Iran has emerged a victor, but it could person been overmuch worse,” said Farzan Sabet, an Iran master astatine nan Geneva Graduate Institute deliberation tank. “I deliberation that nan existent triumph for Iran was … survival.”

The woody offers financial benefits

Under nan interim deal, nan U.S. is to rumor waivers to let for nan export of Iranian crude oil. At slightest 3 state-owned Iranian lipid tankers person already group sail arsenic nan U.S. has lifted its blockade, according to Lloyd’s List Intelligence.

Iran has exported astir 18 cardinal barrels successful nan past 5 days, nan patient TankerTrackers.com said Friday, putting nan worth astatine $1.44 billion.

Dozens much tankers loaded pinch lipid could soon depart from Kharg Island, Iran's main export terminal connected nan Persian Gulf, further pushing down world prices.

Benchmark Brent crude, which traded complete $110 a tube past month, has fallen to astir $80 since nan woody was reached. The mean value of a gallon of gasoline successful nan U.S. besides has dropped to nether $4, a intimately watched metric up of midterm legislature elections.

The sanctions had agelong forced Iran to export crude done a “shadow fleet,” trading chiefly to China astatine below-market rates. Now it tin prosecute much customers and get a amended price.

Iran will request that rate much than ever arsenic it grapples pinch nan fallout from nan war.

Iran is facing a looming economical situation

Since authorities lifted a monthslong net shutdown, galore Iranians person posted photographs of their quiet refrigerators.

Meat and different staples person grown excessively costly for immoderate households. The Iranian rial, which traded astatine 32,000 to $1 astatine nan clip of nan 2015 atomic woody pinch world powers, now stands astatine complete 1.5 cardinal to nan dollar.

“The conflict is estimated to person costs astatine slightest 1 cardinal Iranian jobs, pinch 20% of workforce losses tied to nan state-imposed net shutdown,” said Holly Dagres, a elder chap astatine nan Washington Institute for Near East Policy.

“Ordinary Iranians, already struggling nether systemic mismanagement and corruption arsenic good arsenic U.S. sanctions, person felt those burdens compounded by hyperinflation that has rendered nan Iranian rial efficaciously worthless.”

The rial's illness sparked nan nationwide protests that swept crossed Iran successful January, challenging nan norm of then-Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Iran’s information forces launched their bloodiest-ever suppression, sidesplitting thousands of people.

The 86-year-old Khamenei and different apical leaders were killed successful Israel’s opening barrage of nan warfare connected Feb. 28. Funeral ceremonies are planned for July 4-9, coinciding pinch nan six-month day of nan protestation crackdown. The authorities has sponsored nonstop rallies since nan warfare began, successful a show of force.

Moderate voices successful Iran are pushing for nan state to prehend nan imaginable economical benefits from negotiations. Along pinch a complete lifting of each sanctions, nan accord promises a $300 cardinal finance money for Iran if it reaches a last woody pinch nan U.S. — though it remains unclear wherever that money would travel from.

The mobility is really acold Iran's caller Supreme Leader Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei, nan precocious leader's son, on pinch constitution hard-liners, are consenting to go. In a connection connected authorities media, he endorsed nan interim deal, saying talks “will not mean accepting nan enemy’s opinion” but besides saying he had a “different viewpoint,” without elaborating.

The woody could unravel complete Lebanon and atomic issues

The conflict successful Lebanon has already put nan woody astatine risk. Talks planned for Friday successful Switzerland were postponed arsenic fighting intensified betwixt Israel and Iran-backed Hezbollah militants.

Israel says it will proceed to inhabit ample areas of confederate Lebanon and conflict Hezbollah until it nary longer poses a threat. Hezbollah has refused to halt its attacks without an Israeli withdrawal, though nan 2 sides agreed to halt hostilities Friday.

The interim woody betwixt Iran and nan U.S. — which neither Israel nor Hezbollah has signed — calls for some sides to cease subject operations and for Lebanon's territorial integrity and sovereignty to beryllium upheld.

“The extremity of nan warfare successful Lebanon is an inseparable portion of (the) complete extremity of nan war,” Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said Tuesday. “And nan extremity of nan warfare besides includes nan extremity of nan occupation.”

That leaves very small wiggle room for nan Americans, who postponed Vice President JD Vance’s travel to Switzerland.

Then there’s nan existent negotiations. Iran appears to person gotten 2 main issues agelong pushed by nan U.S. and Israel disconnected nan table: its rocket programme and its support for Hezbollah and different militant groups.

On nan cardinal atomic issue, it agreed to “downblend” its highly enriched uranium, which resolves 1 apical U.S. concern.

But Raja News, a media outlet aligned pinch ultra hard-line factions, criticized that agreement, saying Iran had “given up its astir important levers.” That shows nan unit not to backmost down connected different issues, for illustration nan broader enrichment program.

“I’m not very optimistic astir nan benignant of 2nd information of discussions that are going to attraction connected nan atomic issue,” Sabet said. “It’s not really clear to maine yet that those will spell anywhere, astatine slightest this year.”

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Associated Press writer Jamey Keaten successful Geneva contributed to this report.

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EDITOR’S NOTE — Jon Gambrell, news head for nan Gulf and Iran for The Associated Press, has reported from each of nan Gulf Cooperation Council countries, Iran and different locations crossed nan Mideast and nan wider world since joining AP successful 2006.