2026 Oscars Predictions: Our Expert's Picks In Every Category

Tears person been shed. Heads person been shaved. Blimps person been moored.

The movie that broke nan all-time grounds for nominations came retired astir a twelvemonth ago, while nan favourite to triumph champion image hit theaters successful September.

So, yes, it’s clip for some a reset and a coronation, clip to (finally) adjacent nan book connected an awards play that, until recently, felt short connected surprises and agelong connected ... well, conscionable plain long.

The exhaustive and exhausting buildup to nan Oscars is astir complete and nan 2 movies that person nan champion changeable astatine winning nan apical prize — Paul Thomas Anderson’s darkly comedic action-thriller “One Battle After Another” and Ryan Coogler’s genre-defying American scary communicative “Sinners” — besides hap to beryllium nan champion films released successful 2025.

There’s nary bad choice. But take we must — and not conscionable for champion picture. Twenty-three different categories will beryllium awarded Sunday astatine nan 98th Academy Awards too. So commencement up your Oscar pools and publication connected for last Oscar predictions. We’re almost astatine nan decorativeness line.

Picture

(Warner Bros. Pictures)

“Bugonia”
“F1”
“Frankenstein”
“Hamnet”
“Marty Supreme”
“One Battle After Another”
“The Secret Agent”
“Sentimental Value”
“Sinners”
“Train Dreams”

Will win: “One Battle After Another”
Could surprise: “Sinners”

In position of worthiness, “One Battle” vs. “Sinners” is very overmuch a 1A/1B situation, pinch Anderson’s epic having nan flimsy edge. But pinch nan Oscars, value is often secondary to an awards narrative. Both movies person taste relevance. Both won captious acclaim and, to a degree, commercialized success. (Though “One Battle” wasn’t nan blockbuster “Sinners” was, it still grossed much than immoderate different movie successful Anderson’s career.) “Sinners” scored 16 Oscar nominations, nan astir successful history; “One Battle” was adjacent down pinch 13.

“One Battle” won pinch nan Producers Guild, nan precursor that astir accurately predicts champion picture. It besides hit “Sinners” astatine nan British Academy Film Awards. “Sinners” landed nan formed prize astatine nan Actor Awards, which is not a reliable precursor but did springiness Coogler’s movie a large infinitesimal successful beforehand of an assemblage while Oscar ballots were out. Does nan academy’s preferential voting system, successful which members rank nan champion image nominees, use either movie? Some opportunity it favors “Sinners.” But nan PGA, which besides uses classed voting, went pinch “One Battle.”

Might visibility determine it? Coogler and his “Sinners” squad person been a ubiquitous beingness astatine events passim nan awards season. Anderson mostly shuns campaigning, preferring nan activity to speak for itself. “‘Sinners’ feels for illustration a genuine ceremony of Black accomplishment and joy, which feels for illustration something,” says a seasoned awards consultant. “Outside of loving PTA and his movies, ‘One Battle’ doesn’t person a personality. They mightiness time off immoderate awards connected nan table.” But he thinks it’s still winning champion picture. So do I.

Director

(Warner Bros. Pictures)

Paul Thomas Anderson, “One Battle After Another”
Ryan Coogler, “Sinners”
Josh Safdie, “Marty Supreme”
Joachim Trier, “Sentimental Value”
Chloé Zhao, “Hamnet”

Will win: Anderson

If “Sinners” does triumph champion picture, how’s this for a consolation: Anderson, who came into nan twelvemonth having ne'er won contempt 11 nominations, will spell location pinch 2 Oscars — head and adapted screenplay.

Lead actress

(Agata Grzybowska / Focus Features)

Jessie Buckley, “Hamnet”
Rose Byrne, “If I Had Legs I’d Kick You”
Kate Hudson, “Song Sung Blue”
Renate Reinsve, “Sentimental Value”
Emma Stone, “Bugonia”

Will win: Buckley

I’ll ever subordinate Buckley and “Hamnet” pinch nan representation of leaving nan movie’s premiere astatine Telluride and seeing a female sobbing truthful difficult that a friend had to prop her up against nan wall to support her from collapsing successful nan walkway. As I wrote afterward, “Buckley’s searching, searing move seems destined to beryllium lauded countless times these adjacent fewer months, a capacity that is arsenic intolerable to disregard arsenic nan characteristic she plays.” She’s won everything else. Here’s her last reward.

Lead actor

(Warner Bros. Entertainment)

Timothée Chalamet, “Marty Supreme”
Leonardo DiCaprio, “One Battle After Another”
Ethan Hawke, “Blue Moon”
Michael B. Jordan, “Sinners”
Wagner Moura, “The Secret Agent”

Will win: Jordan
Could surprise: Chalamet

Is it arrogant to want to beryllium great? Is it presumptuous to opportunity that an character has an Oscar successful nan container 2 weeks earlier nan ceremony? I’ve been pondering these questions since I sent retired a newsletter saying that Chalamet would beryllium winning this Oscar “in a walk.” After that landed successful inboxes, I heard from a number of voters conveying their reservations astir young Timothée. Basically, their hesitancy could beryllium boiled down to, arsenic 1 shaper wrote, “He’s a cocky small s—.”

This cognition mostly seems to travel from Chalamet’s reside astatine nan Screen Actors Guild Awards past year, when, accepting nan lead character grant for playing Bob Dylan successful “A Complete Unknown,” he had nan audacity to opportunity that he was “in pursuit of greatness.”

“I cognize group don’t usually talk for illustration that, but I want to beryllium 1 of nan greats,” he continued, thereby violating an unwritten Hollywood codification that you request to astatine slightest dress to beryllium humble aliases you’ll find yourself connected nan receiving extremity of a Vogue header accusing you of “manosphere-enabled overconfidence.”

After not winning astatine nan BAFTAs aliases nan Actor Awards, it would look that Chalamet is astir apt not going to return nan Oscar this year, because A) group conflate nan characteristic of Marty Mauser, nan talented, selfish self-promoter, pinch nan character playing him; B) Chalamet’s “too young” and needs to “pay his dues” truthful he tin triumph a decade from now for a movie that, knowing nan Oscars, will beryllium nan 15th champion of his profession (“Hooah!”); and C) group deliberation he’s a “cocky small s—.”

If Jordan wins arsenic he did astatine nan Actor Awards for his career-best activity playing identical twins Smoke and Stack successful “Sinners,” bully connected him. I’ve talked pinch Jordan a number of times complete nan years, and he seems genuinely humble astir his life and work. He’s a movie star. (Like Chalamet!) And he brings his mom to awards shows. (Like Chalamet ... erstwhile he’s not taking woman Kylie Jenner.) Maybe he moreover respects ballet and opera. (Unlike Chalamet?)

Supporting actress

(Warner Bros. Pictures)

Elle Fanning, “Sentimental Value”
Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas, “Sentimental Value”
Amy Madigan, “Weapons”
Wunmi Mosaku, “Sinners”
Teyana Taylor, “One Battle After Another”

Will win: Madigan
Could surprise: Taylor

Mosaku narrates “Sinners,” delivers successful respective cardinal scenes, took nan BAFTA grant and could easy triumph nan Oscar if there’s a “Sinners” wave. Taylor sets nan array for “One Battle,” won nan Globe and could easy triumph nan Oscar if there’s a “One Battle” wave. Madigan earned nan only information “Weapons” received, a bad sign, but she appeals to old-guard academy voters, moreover if her movie mightiness not. (The “Sentimental Value” women will divided nan movie’s support.) So who wins? Who knows. But does playing an iconic characteristic that inspires a super-popular Halloween costume count for something? I’m betting it will.

Supporting actor

(Warner Bros. Pictures)

Benicio Del Toro, “One Battle After Another”
Jacob Elordi, “Frankenstein”
Delroy Lindo, “Sinners”
Sean Penn, “One Battle After Another”
Stellan Skarsgård, “Sentimental Value”

Will win: Penn
Could surprise: Skarsgård

Chalamet gets dinged for aspiring to greatness, and Penn’s astir to triumph his 3rd Oscar simply for being awesome — and not talking astir it. Nor showing up to nan BAFTAs and Actor Awards to cod prizes. (Maybe they wouldn’t fto him smoke, which, judging from an ashtray connected nan table, he did passim nan Golden Globes.) If he wins, Penn will subordinate Meryl Streep, Jack Nicholson, Ingrid Bergman, Daniel Day-Lewis, Frances McDormand and Walter Brennan (who died from emphysema ... conscionable a heads-up, Sean) arsenic three-time Oscar winners. (Katharine Hepburn is nan only character to triumph four.)

Adapted screenplay

(Warner Bros. Pictures)

“Bugonia,” Will Tracy
“Frankenstein,” Guillermo del Toro
“Hamnet,” Chloé Zhao and Maggie O’Farrell
“One Battle After Another,” Paul Thomas Anderson
“Train Dreams,” Clint Bentley and Greg Kwedar

Will win: “One Battle After Another”

And here’s that 2nd Oscar for Anderson.

Original screenplay

(Eli Ade / Warner Bros. Pictures)

“Blue Moon,” Robert Kaplow
“It Was Just an Accident,” Jafar Panahi; book collaborators: Nader Saïvar, Shadmehr Rastin, Mehdi Mahmoudian
“Marty Supreme,” Ronald Bronstein and Josh Safdie
“Sentimental Value,” Eskil Vogt and Joachim Trier
“Sinners,” Ryan Coogler

Will win: “Sinners”

And here’s astatine slightest 1 Oscar for Coogler.

Animated feature

(Netflix)

“Arco”
“Elio”
“KPop Demon Hunters”
“Little Amélie aliases nan Character of Rain”
“Zootopia 2”

Will win: “KPop Demon Hunters”

The earworm-loaded “KPop” conscionable swept nan animation industry’s Annie Awards, winning each 10 of its nominated categories. It’s nan astir celebrated movie successful nan history of Netflix, and, if you’re a elector pinch (grand)kids, you’ve astir apt watched it — and enjoyed it — together, oh, astatine slightest 3 (dozen) times.

Documentary feature

(Netflix)

“The Alabama Solution”
“Come See Me successful nan Good Light”
“Cutting Through Rocks”
“Mr. Nobody Against Putin”
“The Perfect Neighbor”

Will win: “The Perfect Neighbor”
Could surprise: “Mr. Nobody Against Putin”

“The Perfect Neighbor,” nan true-crime documentary astir a Florida Black azygous mother killed successful 2023 by her achromatic neighbor, has racked up much than 50 cardinal views since its October debut connected Netflix. In years past, that would springiness it a immense advantage. But this year, voters are required to certify done nan academy’s screening room portal that they person viewed each nominated films successful each class to beryllium eligible to ballot successful that category. And you cognize what? It still has a immense advantage.

International feature

(Neon)

“It Was Just an Accident”
“The Secret Agent”
“Sentimental Value”
“Sirât”
“The Voice of Hind Rajab”

Will win: “Sentimental Value”
Could surprise: “The Secret Agent”

Never underestimate nan passion of Brazil, which helped powerfulness “I’m Still Here” to a triumph present past year. But successful a title betwixt nan 2 films that are besides nominated for champion picture, spell pinch “Sentimental Value,” which secured 9 nods to 4 for “The Secret Agent.” Its tender communicative of daddy issues, related emotion and really streaming is ruining accepted cinema is wholly relatable.

Casting

(Warner Bros. Pictures)

“Hamnet,” Nina Gold
“Marty Supreme,” Jennifer Venditti
“One Battle After Another,” Cassandra Kulukundis
“The Secret Agent,” Gabriel Domingues
“Sinners,” Francine Maisler

Will win: “Sinners”

Is location anyone who hasn’t worked pinch Maisler, who has formed movies for Michael Mann, Terrence Malick, Steve McQueen, Barry Jenkins and Denis Villeneuve, among countless others? She moreover formed nan Roy family successful “Succession,” for crying retired loud. Maisler is simply a fable and nan cleanable prime for nan first Oscar successful this brand-new category.

Cinematography

(Warner Bros. Pictures)

“Frankenstein,” Dan Laustsen
“Marty Supreme,” Darius Khondji
“One Battle After Another,” Michael Bauman
“Sinners,” Autumn Durald Arkapaw
“Train Dreams,” Adolpho Veloso

Will win: “One Battle After Another”
Could surprise: “Sinners” aliases “Train Dreams”

This is nan year’s hardest class to predict. You person Bauman and nan vintage large-format VistaVision camerawork and those gorgeous nighttime scenes and nan thrilling car pursuit finale. You person Arkapaw’s move usage of nan 65-pound Imax camera and nan indelible surreal philharmonic segment successful nan juke joint. You person Veloso’s immersive, painterly activity successful a 3:2 facet ratio that gives you nan emotion that you’re gazing done a model into nan past. Arkapaw would beryllium nan first female to triumph this category. But Bauman won pinch nan American Society of Cinematographers, BAFTA and nan British Society of Cinematographers, and those wins springiness him nan slightest of edges.

Costume design

(Ken Woroner / Netflix)

“Avatar: Fire and Ash,” Deborah L. Scott
“Frankenstein,” Kate Hawley
“Hamnet,” Malgosia Turzanska
“Marty Supreme,” Miyako Bellizzi
“Sinners,” Ruth E. Carter

Will win: “Frankenstein”
Could surprise: “Sinners”

Hawley won pinch BAFTA and nan Costume Design Guild, truthful it’s difficult to prime against her sumptuous, bejeweled-tone return connected Guillermo del Toro’s (Mia) Gothic-Victorian scary tale.

Film editing

(Warner Bros. Pictures)

“F1,” Stephen Mirrione
“Marty Supreme,” Ronald Bronstein and Josh Safdie
“One Battle After Another,” Andy Jurgensen
“Sentimental Value,” Olivier Bugge Coutté
“Sinners,” Michael P. Shawver

Will win: “One Battle After Another”

“One Battle After Another” moves pinch breakneck speed, its 162 minutes going by successful a flash. Jurgensen earned this Oscar for nan trim of nan closing car pursuit alone.

Makeup and hairstyling

(Ken Woroner / Netflix)

“Frankenstein,” Mike Hill, Jordan Samuel and Cliona Furey
“Kokuho,” Kyoko Toyokawa, Naomi Hibino and Tadashi Nishimatsu
“Sinners,” Ken Diaz, Mike Fontaine and Shunika Terry
“The Smashing Machine,” Kazu Hiro, Glen Griffin and Bjoern Rehbein
“The Ugly Stepsister,” Thomas Foldberg and Anne Cathrine Sauerberg

Will win: “Frankenstein”

“It’s alive!”

Original score

(Warner Bros. Entertainment)

“Bugonia,” Jerskin Fendrix
“Frankenstein,” Alexandre Desplat
“Hamnet,” Max Richter
“One Battle After Another,” Jonny Greenwood
“Sinners,” Ludwig Göransson

Will win: “Sinners”

Göransson is connected a roll, connected way to triumph his 3rd Oscar successful this category, pursuing “Black Panther” successful 2019 and “Oppenheimer” successful 2024. At 41, he’s a threat to eclipse John Williams’ 5 wins, though Williams’ 54 nominations is good retired of reach. Next up: Reteaming pinch Christopher Nolan connected “The Odyssey.” Same clip adjacent year?

Original song

(Netflix)

“Dear Me” from “Diane Warren: Relentless”; euphony and lyric by Diane Warren
“Golden” from “KPop Demon Hunters”; euphony and lyric by Ejae, Mark Sonnenblick, Joong Gyu Kwak, Yu Han Lee, Hee Dong Nam, Jeong Hoon Seon and Teddy Park
“I Lied to You” from “Sinners”; euphony and lyric by Raphael Saadiq and Ludwig Göransson
“Sweet Dreams of Joy” from “Viva Verdi!”; euphony and lyric by Nicholas Pike
“Train Dreams” from “Train Dreams”; euphony by Nick Cave and Bryce Dessner; lyric by Nick Cave

Will win: “Golden”

“KPop’s” signature opus is truthful celebrated that moreover nan signature opus from nan movie nominated for a record-breaking 16 Oscars doesn’t person a chance against it.

Production design

(Ken Woroner / Netflix)

“Frankenstein,” accumulation design: Tamara Deverell; group decoration: Shane Vieau
“Hamnet,” accumulation design: Fiona Crombie; group decoration: Alice Felton
“Marty Supreme,” accumulation design: Jack Fisk; group decoration: Adam Willis
“One Battle After Another,” accumulation design: Florencia Martin; group decoration: Anthony Carlino
“Sinners,” accumulation design: Hannah Beachler; group decoration: Monique Champagne

Will win: “Frankenstein”

“Frankenstein’s” lavish, painstakingly crafted sets person swept done nan awards season, winning astatine BAFTA and pinch nan creation board and group decorators guilds, making it nan prohibitive favorite. If that’s nan case, it feels for illustration it’s clip to springiness nan awesome Fisk an honorary Oscar astatine nan adjacent Governors Awards. He’s beyond overdue.

Sound

(Warner Bros. Pictures)

“F1,” Gareth John, Al Nelson, Gwendolyn Yates Whittle, Gary A. Rizzo and Juan Peralta
“Frankenstein,” Greg Chapman, Nathan Robitaille, Nelson Ferreira, Christian Cooke and Brad Zoern
“One Battle After Another,” José Antonio García, Christopher Scarabosio and Tony Villaflor
“Sinners,” Chris Welcker, Benjamin A. Burtt, Felipe Pacheco, Brandon Proctor and Steve Boeddeker
“Sirāt,” Amanda Villavieja, Laia Casanovas and Yasmina Praderas

Will win: “F1”
Could surprise: “Sinners”

Ggghhzzzzzzzhhhhhhhggggggzzzzzzzeeeeeong! Hard to hit nan purr of a high-tech title car.

Visual effects

( 20th Century Studios)

“Avatar: Fire and Ash,” Joe Letteri, Richard Baneham, Eric Saindon and Daniel Barrett
“F1,” Ryan Tudhope, Nicolas Chevallier, Robert Harrington and Keith Dawson
“Jurassic World Rebirth,” David Vickery, Stephen Aplin, Charmaine Chan and Neil Corbould
“The Lost Bus,” Charlie Noble, David Zaretti, Russell Bowen and Brandon K. McLaughlin
“Sinners,” Michael Ralla, Espen Nordahl, Guido Wolter and Donnie Dean

Will win: “Avatar: Fire and Ash”

The ocular wonders of Pandora ne'er turn old, moreover erstwhile nan storytelling feels for illustration it’s spinning its wheels.

Animated short

(Butterfly)

“Butterfly”
“Forevergreen”
“The Girl Who Cried Pearls”
“Retirement Plan”
“The Three Sisters”

Will win: “Butterfly”
Could surprise: “The Girl Who Cried Pearls”

“Butterfly,” a gorgeous, painterly look astatine nan life of Jewish French-Algerian swimmer Alfred Nakache, who competed successful nan Olympics earlier and aft nan Holocaust, is my choice. But nan stop-motion “The Girl Who Cried Pearls,” a grimy communicative of greed that would delight Dickens and Tim Burton, has its fans — and is nan only 1 of this group nominated astatine nan Annie Awards.

Documentary short

(Netflix)

“All nan Empty Rooms”
“Armed Only With a Camera: The Life and Death of Brent Renaud”
“Children No More: Were and Are Gone”
“The Devil Is Busy”
“Perfectly a Strangeness”

Will win: “All nan Empty Rooms”

Parents took CBS News newsman Steve Hartman and photographer Lou Bopp wrong nan untouched bedrooms of their children who were killed successful schoolhouse shootings. Needless to say, it breaks your heart.

Live action short

(Misia Films & Preromanbritain)

“Butcher’s Stain”
“A Friend of Dorothy”
“Jane Austen’s Period Drama”
“The Singers”
“Two People Exchanging Saliva”

Will win: “Two People Exchanging Saliva”
Could surprise: “A Friend of Dorothy”

“Two People Exchanging Saliva,” a “Carol”-esque communicative group successful a dystopian early wherever kissing is forbidden and punishable by death, is nan astir eager and afloat realized of nan nominees, and its characters’ guidance carries an urgency. “A Friend of Dororthy,” meanwhile, is centered connected a tiny aged woman who will lukewarm your heart. Are voters emotion sentimental? Flip a coin.